Celtics-Bulls Recap

As much as Celtics pregame tried to amp this game up like it was a big one, it wasn't.  They were not catching the Bulls and number 2 seed was the best they would do whether they had won the game or not.  Doc Rivers knew this too, and if you don't think so just take a look at the box score.  Besides Ray Allen, who played 38 minutes, the most any other Celtic starter played was 32 minutes.  The Bulls on the other hand gave their starters their usual amount of playing time as Rose, Deng, and Boozer all logged in 36 minutes or more.  Also, the Celtics inability to score was as much Celtics just being off as it was the Bulls defense.  Rondo missed breakaway layups, Pierce and Allen missing wide open 3's, Pierce throwing 3 easy passes away in what turns into easy fast break points.  These are things I don't expect to see again.  There was four things I DID take away from this game.

1. KG can have his way with Noah.  This is not 09-10 and I think Noah realizes all that trash he was talking about KG was premature, he was going against a 70% KG and thought that was as good as KG was going to be the rest of his career.  Wrong.  
2. Ray Allen is still dribbling way too much.  Every single time he didn't get an open shot and put the ball on the ground trying to create a shot it did not end well.  
3. For Rondo to be able to contain Rose he can't play the lazy defense he gets away with vs. the rest of the league.  Rondo will be left lying on the ground, as he literally was last night, if he does not go 100% on defense and keep his body in between Roses and the basket at all times.  
4. Deng is one of the most underrated players there is in NBA.  He is one of the cases where he signed a contract that was too big, didn't perform as the people expected a player getting that type of money should, and then got written off (Andre Iguodala is in the same boat).  If Rose is trying to play the Jordan role, Deng is doing a great job playing Pippen.  He is one of top defending SF, hits open shots, can create shots, but also does not demand the ball or the spotlight.  He is the perfect role player.

Does playoff experience really matter?

The Chicago Bulls are one game behind the San Antonio Spurs in the race for the best record in the league. They have the NBA's best point differential (+7.3) and defensive rating (97.3). And possessing an exceptionally stingy defense has been shown to be a better predictor of playoff success than an off-the-charts offense.

Considering the numbers above, you would expect the Bulls to be in the conversation when discussing title favorites. But instead you hear the talking heads bringing up the Lakers, Celtics, and Spurs. Sometimes they name the Heat. The Bulls are mentioned, but quickly discarded because of their lack of "playoff experience."

Most people seem to accept that such experience makes a difference. But I have yet to see anyone put forward evidence supporting the theory. So I decided to conduct a simple, not particularly scientific, study. I looked back at teams from the past twenty seasons that (a) have posted one of the two best records in the league, (b) had a top 5-defensive rating, and (c) had not reached the conference finals during the previous five years. I then took a look at how these teams did in the playoffs.

So, who were these teams? The list is relatively short:

2007-08 Boston Celtics. Led by Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, the Celtics finished the regular season 66-16 and were first in the league in defensive rating. They had some unexpected struggles in the early rounds of the playoffs, but went on to win the Championship against the Los Angeles Lakers.

2000-01 Philadelphia 76ers. No one on the 76ers other than Allen Iverson averaged more than 12.4 points per game, but with a stingy defense and helped by playing in a horrid Eastern Conference, they went 54-28. They made it to the Finals and gave the heavily favored Lakers a scare when they won Game One...but proceeded to lose the next four.

1994-95 San Antonio Spurs. With David Robinson leading the way, the Spurs posted a 57-25 record. They made it to the Western Conference Finals before succumbing to the eventual Champion Houston Rockets by a a count of 4 games to 2.

1993-94 Houston Rockets. Speaking of the Rockets, Hakeem Olajuwan teamed up with a bevy of solid, though not exceptional players (Vernon Maxwell, Kenny Smith, Otis Thorpe, Robert Horry, Mario Elie, Sam Cassell) and accomplished a 53-29 regular season record and finished with the league's second best defensive rating. The team went on to win the NBA Championship 4 games to 3 against the Knicks in a low scoring, defensive struggle.

1992-93 New York Knicks. Ah yes, the Knicks of Ewing, Starks, Oakley and Mason. They went 58-24, had the best defensive in the league, and an offense that came in all the way down at 22nd. As with every other Eastern Conference team of the day, they couldn't make it past the Chicago Bulls, falling in a six games series in the Eastern Conference finals.

Five teams, two won the Championship, one lost in the Finals, and two lost in the Conference Finals. None of the teams flamed out. Two of the three teams that didn't win it all lost because they were simply outclassed (the 76ers against the Shaq/Kobe Lakers and the Knicks against the Jordan Bulls). Only the Spurs lost a series that they even arguably should have won.

So what does it add up to? Pretty darn good results. Count the Bulls out at your own risk.

Playoff Positions

East

1) Chicago Bulls
8) Indiana Pacers

4) Orlando Magic
5) Atlanta Hawks

3) Boston Celtics/Miami Heat
6) New York Knicks/Philadelphia 76ers

2) Boston Celtics/Miami Heat
7) New York Knicks/Philadelphia 76ers

In the East the most interesting match up would be Atlanta vs. Magic, in which Atlanta holds 3-1 advantage in the regular season.  They also supposedly have the official superman stopper in Jason Collins.  Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks, if it happens, would be fun to watch and more of a challenge for the Heat then people would expect.  The one meeting they had this season post-melo trade Knicks won 91-86 at Miami.

 West

1) San Antonio Spurs
8) New Orleans Hornets/Portland Trailblazers/Memphis Grizzlies

4) Dallas Mavericks/Oklahoma City Thunder
5) Denver Nuggets

3) Dallas Mavericks/Oklahoma City Thunder
6) New Orleans Hornets/Portland Trailblazers/Memphis Grizzlies

2) Los Angeles Lakers
7) New Orleans Hornets/Portland Trailblazers/Memphis Grizzlies

As usual the West seeding are not decided until the very end, unlike usual we do know all of the teams that are going to be in or out of the playoffs a full week before they start.  Seeing as almost every match up is completely up for grabs it is hard to comment on which one will be interesting.  I do know though that Mavericks and Thunder definitely do NOT want to see Nuggets in the first round.  It is no coincidence that as Kenyon Martin has finally gotten healthy Nuggets are looking as good as they have all season (Including with Melo).  The most compelling match up with the Lakers will be the Grizzlies.  Little Gasol vs. Big Gasol and Tony Allen defending Kobe would make for great TV.  Grizzlies are 2-2 in the regular season series.  Of all the top teams in the West Dallas, like usual, is looking like the easiest one to be upset. *Edit* Looks like George Karl agrees.

Ray Allen's Shot Attempts

Ray Allen

As more reports come in about Ray Allen hinting he wants more shots, Doc Rivers saying Allen isn't relaxed and is dribbling too much, I wanted to to take a closer look at what is going on.  After paying attention to just Allen on the offensive side in the last few Celtic games it seems pretty obvious to me he is just not getting open.  Rondo is still looking for him every possession when he comes off the screens, but his man is on him tight.  I have seen this happen countless times, and in the end it just takes some time off the shot clock as Rondo waits for Allen to get to his spot.  In the time when Rondo does get Allen the ball there is no shot.  This looks like it leads to Allen getting somewhat frustrated with no having a shot and dribbling more then usual trying to set up his own shot, something he has not excelled at in a couple of years.  The question as to why Allen is not getting open can either be one of two options.  Option number 1,  Allen is just getting older and people are having an easier time staying up with him.  Option number 2, which I would I guess is the real culprit, is that people are just not setting good screens (something Perkins excelled at) for Allen and giving his defender a much easier time following him around the court.  The one positive to come out of all this is that it has forced Rondo to be more aggressive.  Rondo has been taking and hitting his long range jumper consistently over last 5 games (11/17 from 16-23 feet).

Bold Predictions Pt. II

I've been continuing to watch the NCAA tournament and have a few more predictions regarding the NBA careers of prospective draft picks.

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes (UNC): Most mock drafts seemed to have Barnes pegged for the top 5 and perhaps even the top 3. A few even have him going #1. I don't disagree with these projections. People have been in love with Barnes' potential since high school. This year, he was the first freshman to ever be a pre-season All-American. Somehow, despite underperforming for much of the season, Barnes has shown enough to retain many scouts' love.

My estimation of Barnes' NBA career however: Harrison Barnes will be the bust of the 2011 NBA Draft. Barnes disappears for long periods of time on offense and doesn't demand the ball during big moments. He isn't athletic enough to get to the rim and therefore settles for a lot of jumpers--jumpers that he doesn't hit with all that much consistency. He doesn't create shots for others and isn't anything special on the boards. The numbers bear me out. Barnes shot under 43% from the field, didn't get to the line with great frequency, and averaged more turnovers per game than assists. And all this despite having talented teammates around him who necessitated that the opposing team not simply focus on shutting down Barnes. I do give Barnes props for being a solid defender for a freshmen. However, someone drafting him near the top of the board is looking for more. And I don't think they will get it.

Kenneth Faried

Kenneth Faried (Morehouse State): Faried is almost the anti-Harrison Barnes. Whereas Barnes was a pre-season All-American as a freshmen, no one knew who Faried was when he entered Morehouse State. And whereas Barnes will disappear for long stretches, Faried's energy means that you never forget when he's on the floor.

Mocks are all over the board on Faried. Some have him sneaking into the lottery, others have him towards the end of the first round. I predict that the he falls somewhere in the 20-25 range. NBA teams still love scorers and Faried is never going to be a guy that you're going to lean on for points. They also love untapped potential and Faried, having stayed in school for four years, doesn't have the same room for growth as the one-and-doners.

If Faried does drop that low, teams that drafted in the teens will be looking away in embarrassment over the next decade while he asserts himself as a valuable contributor. Faried led the NCAA in PER this year. He crashes the boards and averaged 14.5 (including 5.7 from the offensive glass) rebounds per game. He gets energy points around the basket and averaged over 17 points per game, despite not currently having a jumper or a post game. He anchored Morehouse's defense and averaged 2.3 blocks and 1.9 rebounds per game. And these numbers are not simply a result of playing against sub-par competition; he went for 20 and 18 against Florida, 15 and 12 against Ohio State, and 17 and 17 against Louisville in the first round of the tournament. I watched the game against Louisville and saw a player who simply will not be denied due to his combination of motor, smarts and athleticism. At worst, Faried will give an NBA team 20-25 minutes of non-stop energy off the bench; someone who will torment the opposing teams' second line. Best case scenario: he develops a mid-range jumper and is a starting player on a championship caliber team, playing defense, hitting the boards, and being good enough on offense to keep defenses honest.

Bosh's Assist of The Night

Now that is what you call in game awareness.

Big Baby's 4th Quarter

A Frustrated Big Baby

Glen "Big Baby" Davis never learns the first time.  Last night in the game vs. the Hawks he single handedly took the C's out of the game in the 4th quarter.  4th quarter started with Celtics up by 4, a slim lead that was based on ball movement and getting good open shots.  I am not sure if Big Baby feels he needs to produce more because he is starting, but every single possession in the 4th where he touched the ball ended with his own miss.  Big Baby entered the game with 8:26 left and a two point lead.  He immediately proceeded to commit a dumb defensive foul with 3 second on the shot clock and bail out the hawks and then end the next three celtics possessions with his own long missed jumper.  By the time this was done the Celtics 2 point lead had now changed to a Hawks 4 point lead.  Pierce and Allen scored the next Celtics 8 points and worked the Hawks lead down to 3 and the ball.  Next time Big Baby touches the ball?  Missed long jumper with plenty of time on the shot clock.  He ended up being 0-5 from the field and 0-2 from the free throw line in the 4th quarter.

He is still a great 6th man for the Celtics, but everytime he is asked to start he has played horrible this season.  His fg% drops from .465 to .400, his ft% drops from .735 to .703, and his rebounding per a game drops from 5.8 to 4.5 while playing 6 more minutes a game.  As someone who does wear their emotions on their sleeve, it is very easy to see Big Baby does not feel one bit comfortable in that starting positions.  This is especially odd coming from the person who filled in great and played better then ever expected when having to fill in for KG in the 08-09 playoffs.